Just trying to understand birthday paradox.
Using a following code I figured out that I need on average 12 samples to get a birthday collision.
Can not understand why it is much lower than normal 23 people to get a 1/2 chance of a birthday collision.
The result does not change even if I use StrongRandom from PyCrypto.
from random import randint
from Crypto.Random.random import StrongRandom
EXPERIMENTS_NUM = 10000
SET_SIZE = 365
SUBSET = 23
where_collision_found = list()
rnd = StrongRandom()
for experiment in range(EXPERIMENTS_NUM):
for i in range(1,SET_SIZE + 2):
collision_found = False
#Generate a subset
# subset = [rnd.randint(1, SET_SIZE) for x in range(i)]
subset = [randint(1, SET_SIZE) for x in range(i)]
# Check for collision
flags = [False for x in range(SET_SIZE + 1)]
for k in range(i):
if flags[subset[k]]: #Collision found
collision_found = True
else:
flags[subset[k]] = True
if collision_found:
# print 'Collision found in set:', subset
break
where_collision_found.append(i)
print 'average collision:', sum(where_collision_found) / float(len(where_collision_found)), 'in', EXPERIMENTS_NUM, 'experiments'
Result:
average collision: 12.1277 in 10000 experiments
I'm not really clear on what your code is doing. Here's what I did just now:
from random import randrange
N = 365
ns = []
for _ in range(10000):
n = 0
seen = set()
while True:
b = randrange(N)
n += 1
if b in seen:
break
seen.add(b)
ns.append(n)
print(sum(ns) / float(len(ns)))
And output from a sample run:
24.6577
This is good. The "23" you're expecting is the median of the distribution; the mean (average) is expected to be 24.61659 ... See here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem#Average_number_of_people