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birthday paradox fastest search


The birthday problem or birthday paradox predicts the likelihood of one or more matching birthdays in a group of N people. Several sites explain how it works, and the mathematics behind it:

  1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem
  2. https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/25876/probability-of-3-people-in-a-room-of-30-having-the-same-birthday
  3. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=birthday+problem+calculator&a=FSelect_**BirthdayProblem-.dflt-&f2=35&f=BirthdayProblem.n_35&f3=365&f=BirthdayProblem.pbds_365

These sites are all great for explaining the concept, but all require that the data has already been collected. None show how to efficiently survey a large group of people.

I’m planning to demonstrate the birthday paradox in a short presentation. Basically, I need the fastest way to determine which, if any, people share or nearly share birthdays in an audience of about 50 people.

the best algorithm I can think of:

  1. ask all people to think of their birthday, just the month and day (or a fictional birthday if they're uncomfortable sharing their true birthday)
  2. ask all people to listen carefully
  3. ask individual people to start announcing their birthday to the group and listen for their match

In the worst case scenario, all people would announce their birthdays in sequence without anyone matching. It feels like I’ve overlooked some shortcut to finding the answer more quickly, beyond a brute-force approach.

alternatives I considered:

• split audience into 2 groups? no, this would prevent people from hearing responses from other group

• plant a person in the audience to “share” their birthday with someone if nobody matches halfway? no, this is cheating

• pass around a year calendar and marker? no, this would probably take longer than speaking

• online survey? no, people might not have phone or WIFI

The solution needs to be low-tech, done without prior preparation and of course, honest.

Please let me know your suggestions for quickly searching for matched birthdays.

Thanks!


Solution

  • By having people stand up on their day, and raise their hand on their month, you can quickly identify 2 matching birthdays. You can also quickly skip days when there are no matching birthdays.