countstatisticsdistributionhierarchical-datajags

How to introduce a random error within a Bayesian count model?


I am trying to model counts distribute across groups in JAGS, but I need to add a random effect for the presence of multiple counts from the same individual.

The model is taken from here enter link description here I am stuck, so I would greatly appreciate any help with this.

# File name "count model.jags"

model {
    #Likelihood
    for (i in 1:nGroups) {
        obs[i] ~ dbin(p[i],n[i])
        p[i] ~ dbeta(a[i],b[i])
        a[i] ~ dgamma(1,0.01)
        b[i] ~ dgamma(1,0.01)
    } 
} # end of model

Solution

  • To incorporate random effects for repeated measurements from the same individual in your binomial model, you'll need to add a hierarchical structure. Here's how you can modify your JAGS model:

    model {
      # Likelihood
      for (i in 1:nObs) {  # Loop over all observations
        obs[i] ~ dbin(p[i], n[i])
        logit(p[i]) <- beta0 + beta[group[i]] + u[individual[i]]  # Linear predictor with random effect
      }
      
      # Random effects for individuals
      for (j in 1:nIndividuals) {
        u[j] ~ dnorm(0, tau.u)  # Individual random effects
      }
      
      # Group-level effects
      for (k in 1:nGroups) {
        beta[k] ~ dnorm(0, 0.001)  # Group effects
      }
      
      # Hyperpriors
      beta0 ~ dnorm(0, 0.001)      # Global intercept
      tau.u ~ dgamma(0.001, 0.001) # Precision for random effects
      sigma.u <- 1/sqrt(tau.u)     # Convert to standard deviation
    }
    

    Your data structure should look like this:

    data <- list(
      nObs = length(obs),
      nIndividuals = length(unique(individual_ids)),
      nGroups = length(unique(group_ids)),
      obs = observed_counts,
      n = trials,
      individual = individual_ids,
      group = group_ids
    )
    

    This approach properly accounts for within-individual correlation while maintaining your group structure. The random effects capture individual-specific deviations from the group-level effects.